Rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen
66.5% voted to campaign to remain and only 14.8% voted to campaign to leave. 19.6% didn't want Momentum to campaign. https://t.co/comK9V5mrt
Today we launch #Votin, because the EU lets us roam, work, live, travel & study in Europe https://t.co/jYEaECYP2Hhttps://t.co/xb2DhOUsZE
Clearly someone in their 50s came up with the #votin "youth" campaign. It's so bad I thought it was a parody by the #Brexit team.
Jeremy Corbyn has been speaking at the PCS conference in Brighton. Here are some tweets about his speech.
Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn 'I am proud to call myself a trade unionist'. #pcsadcpic.twitter.com/pBEHnJ9l69
Corbyn: I hope the National Museum Wales strike is successful. Trade Unions are an important force for good in our society #pcsadc
Corbyn: I cannot support the Trade Union act. A Labour government will repeal it #pcsadc
Corbyn: a Labour gov will return to national pay bargaining. The civil service pay cap needs to end #pcsadc
Corbyn: those Tories supporting Brexit represent the desire for a bonfire of workers' rights #pcsadc
Corbyn: the rise of the far right is the problem in Europe, in blaming migrants for many issues. United, workers achieve things #pcsadc
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has today published a paper looking at the impact of cutting immigration on growth. The NIESR is describing it as “the most comprehensive analysis of the long-term impacts of immigration on the UK economy to date”.
The report models what might happen to the economy over the next 50 years under two conditions, a Remain net migration scenario (based on current longterm projections) and a Leave one (assuming net migration from EU countries will be cut by two thirds).
The paper compares “Leave” and “Remain” scenarios for migration to the UK after the referendum, and assesses their macroeconomic impacts. “Leave” assumes that net migration from the EU countries will decline by two thirds compared to “Remain”. By 2065, in the Leave scenario, aggregate GDP and GDP per person are 9% and 1% lower respectively compared to the “Remain” scenario. Reduced migration after leaving the EU has a significant negative impact on the public finances, primarily because of a higher dependency ratio, which is the fraction of young and old people of the total population. Accordingly government spending rises as a share of GDP by 1.1 percentage points in 2065, requiring an increase in taxation of about £400 per person (2014 pounds). As a result, post-tax wages are 2% lower in the Leave scenario.
Our research shows that lower migration has an overall negative effect on the UK economy. In general EU immigrants benefit the UK economy for two main reasons – they are on average much younger and are more highly qualified than the general population.
MPs are still debating the Queen’s speech and Kenneth Clarke, the Conservative former chancellor, has just finished his contribution. In a wide-ranging speech, which included a passage about how corporate pay levels being far too high, Clarke said he was particularly pleased the speech included measures to tackle money laundering, because London is “the money laundering capital of the world.
In the fight against crime in this country we are very bad at dealing with white collar crime. There is growing awareness today that if you wish to rob a bank, you go to the Libor market. You don’t put a balaclava on and pick up a shotgun, that’s much less profitable. At last we are starting to do something about it. I welcome this bill [the criminal finances bill] and I hope I can be reassured it will tackle not just tax evasion, which is quite rightly high on the public agenda, but money laundering. London is still the money laundering capital of the world. If you’re an African despot or a serious international corrupt criminal, London is the best place to put your money because you can trust the bankers to look after it and not steal it from you. I welcome the fact that we are going to improve the reporting of suspicious activities.
Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has been campaigning in Dudley today. According to the Press Association, here are some of the things he has been saying.
In the end I just feel that all these threats may well backfire. This time last year Remain were a long way ahead. This time this year, they’re a little bit ahead.
Is there any evidence to say there won’t be a recession if we stay in? The British economy is not doing that well. Our 2% growth is funded by a population increase of half a million people a year and by massive government borrowing.
They talk about about the pound going down. The pound has been going down since July 2014. Britain is not in that great a state.
But this isn’t about economics. I can tell you we will be better off out, he’ll tell you we’ll be better off in. Ultimately this referendum is not about trade, it’s not about money - it’s about political union. Do we wish to remain part of a political union that makes the majority of our laws?
It’s all well and good to say we could have more money for the NHS but actually this referendum is about more than that. Our politicians have given away control of our country. Our message has got to be clear - we believe in this country, we believe in its people and we want out country back.
How dare Cameron talk about the cost of holidays when it’s him with air passenger duty that’s put hundreds of pounds on a family going to Florida or Disneyland or anywhere else? He’s the man that’s made holidays expensive. We do not need a European commission to have competitive air fares - it’s so typical of Cameron to make the accusation for the very thing that he himself is guilty of.
.@Nigel_Farage picking up some famous pork scratchings in Dudley @brexitbustour@UKIPpic.twitter.com/XXv1KInShb
Alan Johnson, chair of Labour In for Britain, has been taking part in a Mumsnet Q&A on the EU referendum this afternoon.
The first question he answered came from someone who asked when the plague of locusts would arrive if Britain voted for Brexit. He replied:
I can confidently reveal the date of the plague of locusts is 24th of June if we vote to leave - in which case, the plan is to grant locusts free movement, anywhere in the EU.
ICM has released a new online EU referendum poll.
ICM's latest online EU poll is Remain 45%, Leave 45%. It comes with a method change, weighting up slow respondents: https://t.co/ntaVgeBcOo
Important to note that this poll does NOT show a swing to Remain - old methodology shows the same thing as last week https://t.co/HSnS2QhqZY
Leaving the EU would be an “extraordinarily irresponsible thing to do at a very dangerous moment”, and be “absolutely applauded in Moscow”, Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, told MPs on Tuesday.
He seized the opportunity presented by an appearance before the Commons defence committee - chaired by the Brexit supporter Julian Lewis - to mount impassioned support for the UK remaining a member of the EU.
Obviously this is such a big issue that you do see arguments between political parties... and there are going to be passionate arguments, there’s going to be strong arguments and passion on both sides.
Do I believe at the end of this we can all come together and accept the result? Absolutely I do.
Do you accept on the Ukraine that Russian bombing of Syrian civilians to provoke refugees and to possibly tilt the balance in favour of Brexit is part of a strategy to basically fragment European resolve in terms of Ukraine?
There is definitely a Russian strategy to try to fragment European resolve. I think it’s probably a step too far to suggest that Russia’s engagement in Syria is only designed to apply pressure over Ukraine. Russia has important and historic equities in Syria and is seeking to defend its interest there.
Harriet Harman, Labour’s former interim leader, has written to Ofcom to complain that male politicians are being allowed to dominate the EU referendum debate on the airwaves. She was highlighting this issue at an event this morning.
So far, the referendum debate taking place across the country, has been dominated by men, and mostly Tory men. This needs to change, we need to hear more diverse voices in this important debate, we need to hear more strong women’s voices.
Women across the country are being let down by a Conservative government that is failing on housing, failing our NHS, failing to create good quality jobs and failing even against its own economic targets.
Tony Blair backed the tone of the Remain campaign saying they were mounting a strong campaign focussing on the right issues including the risks to the British economy household incomes and the country’s role in the world.
He also hinted he would be making a joint intervention with other former prime ministers Gordon Brown and Sir John Major to urge the country to stay in the EU “there is a role for former prime ministers,” he said.
Millions of EU workers face uncertainty over whether they can stay in the UK, while British expats in Europe could also lose the right to remain, own property or get free healthcare in the event of Brexit, David Cameron has claimed.
The prime minister said there was no guarantee that UK citizens abroad or EU citizens in the UK would maintain their rights to reside unless there is a vote to remain.
At the Prospect event this morning Tony Blair insisted that his brand of centre ground politics was not dead, but admitted that the centre ground was losing its traction and not providing answers to those that wanted an end to the status quo.
He claimed the source of some of the insurgent support for Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn was similar, saying “these people are riding the anger they are not providing the answers”.
Let us say, it is not yet a proven concept that Corbynism can win an election. It is clear that they can take over a political party, what is not so clear to me yet is that they can take over a country.
Where fringes of left and right meet each other is essentially as isolationists against free trade. It is true that the left want to hang the bankers and the right want to clear out the immigrants, but in the much of the psychology and attitude they have got a lot in common.
If you break down the analysis of the people who are joining the Labour party it is not clear to me those that should feel most angry about their personal situation and those joining are the same people. The world of the Twitterati is gives you a sense of belonging and a sense of insurgency. It was about shaking the system and rattling the cage. People do feel frustrated and social media gives them the ability to feel that at scale and at speed, and the centre looks as if we are saying it is all very complicated. We are not in the right conversation with people like this.
Longterm British expats have lost their battle in the supreme court for the right to vote in the EU referendum, the Press Association reports. The highest court in the land upheld decisions of both the high court and court of appeal that they are not eligible to vote on June 23 because they have lived outside the UK for more than 15 years.
Hello. I’m Andrew Sparrow and I’m taking over from Haroon, who has been writing the blog this morning. (I was at a meeting at school.)
Haroon has already posted some lines from Tony Blair’s Prospect event this morning (see 11.24am), but we’ve got some quotes now, so here are some of the key lines.
Personally, I don’t. I know there is a criticism which I completely understand, which is we shouldn’t have introduced earlier than we needed to the free movement of people from eastern Europe.
But I do think with this debate we’ve got to take a step back and look at the big picture here. First of all, the advent into the European Union of the eastern European countries is of huge strategic importance to Europe and to the world and we should be proud of the fact we championed it.
I believe the people who have come into this country have contributed far more by way of taxes and by way of commitment and energy to this country than they have taken by way of benefits and the truth of the matter is the answer to Britain’s problems today is not to be anti-immigrant.
There is no way of defeating these people without defeating them on the ground. Air strikes are not going to defeat Isis, they have got to be tackled on the ground.
Is our objective to defeat this enemy? My answer to that is yes. That’s why, when I look at what’s happening in Libya today and I see the power of Isis in Libya today, we cannot afford as Europe to have Isis govern a large space of Libya.
We can support local forces in taking them on, but we shouldn’t be in any doubt at all that they need to be taken on and defeated on the ground, which is the place where they are fighting.
We underestimated profoundly the forces that were at work in the region and that would take advantage of the change once you topple the regime.
That’s the lesson. The lesson is not actually complicated, the lesson is simple - it’s that.
My colleague Heather Stewart is tweeting from a Labour event on women in the EU, where several of the party’s prominent female figures are speaking:
At Labour women's EU event. @angelaeagle says debate so far has been an "unmistakably masculine and noisy playground spat" among top Tories.
Brexit campaigners should "come clean" about which workers' rights they would cut if we left the EU, says @angelaeagle.
.@SeemaMalhotra1 up now. Referendum result will affect "women's jobs, their children's jobs, their granchildren's jobs".
Labour equalities spox @KateGreenSU up now: "equality is actually one of the founding principles of the EU," enshrined in Lisbon treaty.
Vote Leave has responded to the prime minster’s claims about family holidays increasing in price in the event of Brexit.
Matthew Elliott, chief executive of Vote Leave, said:
It’s remarkable to see the prime minister talking down our country and our economy day after day.
Yesterday Nicola Sturgeon pleaded with the government to stop the negative campaigning, and urged them to stop making exaggerated claims that insult the public’s intelligence. Clearly they’re not listening.
The defence secretary, Michael Fallon, has told the Commons defence committee that leaving the EU would be an “extraordinarily irresponsible thing to do at a very dangerous moment”.
“A huge amount is hanging on the vote” (not just for the UK) but “for the collective security of Europe and the west”, he said.
Tony Blair has been speaking about the EU referendum and other subjects at a Prospect event in London. Here is a selection of some of the most interesting things on Europe and the current state of the Labour party:
Tony Blair tells an audience in central London that the Remain campaign is doing 'reasonably well'
Tony Blair tells @prospect_uk event when UK leads in Europe "it usually gets its way"
Blair: I don't think my gov let in too many people. "Ppl who have come have contributed more than they have taken" #EUref@LBC
Tony Blair says Turkey's accession to the EU is a "long, long way away"
Blair: "I thought I was pretty good at politics. But I look at politics today and I'm not sure I understand it."
Blair "not yet a proven concept that Corbynism can win an election".
Cameron’s former policy guru told Radio 4’s Today programme earlier that Cameron’s warning about the price of holidays in the event of Brexit, was another example of the sort of “pathetic, patronising EU scares” being deployed by both sides. Hilton, who supports Brexit, told the Press Association:
You’ve got to be kidding. It’s almost like a parody. I just wish we could have a serious debate about the long-term future of how we want to be governed rather than this kind of nonsense. It just does not do anyone any favours. It just puts people off the whole political class.
The Church of Scotland is expected to back continued membership of the European Union later today during a debate at its general assembly.
The assembly has supported ongoing membership of the EU four times in the past 20 years.
The last question to Cameron was about the top three reasons to stay in the EU and the impact they would have on an easyJet employee and her family.
I’m not sure the prime minister gave three reasons but one was cooperation on combatting crime and terrorism. He said it’s not enough in itself to have a border.
You have got to have information about who’s trying to cross that border ...That information you get increasingly through the EU.
If we left the EU there’s still going to be a single market, there’s still going to be a bunch of people working out the regulations for airlines ...the only difficulty is we won’t be there...That is not the act of a great bold country that wants to have influence in the world. You become a rule taker, not a rule maker.
Meanwhile, in Dudley....
Crazy scenes in Dudley as @Nigel_Farage arrives on the #BrexitBusTourpic.twitter.com/YiL4OFguMI
Over in parliament, four top policymakers from the Bank of England have warned MPs that Britain could fall into recession if it votes to leave the EU.
Governor Mark Carney told the Treasury committee that the EU referendum is causing “considerable uncertainty” in the UK economy.
In response to a question from my colleague Rowena Mason about what would happen to non-British EU citizens in the UK in the event of a vote to leave and correspondingly what would happen to British citizens in the EU, Cameron says that is for the leave campaign to address
I can guarantee if we stay that their rights will be maintained ...If we were to leave I think it’s for the leave campaign to explain what they want to do.
Do I believe at the end of this we can all come together and accept the result? Absolutely, I do.
In response to a question about joining the European Economic Area (EEA) instead of being in the EU, the prime minister says that the Leave campaign does not want to be in the EEA as an alternative. He warns that easyJet’s business model would be “entirely destroyed” outside the EU.
Cameron says being in the G7, G20 and the EU enhances Britain, doesn’t diminish it.
The big bold patriotic thing is to stay in the EU ...to fight for the world we want ...in a way that’s what easyJet has done.
David Cameron is up and running at easyJet in Luton where he is talking about the EU referendum (what else?) and where he will claim that leaving the European Union will push up family holiday prices. You can watch above.https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/735034556861022208
Jacket off, Cameron addresses staff @easyJet. Today's dose of 'project fear' - holiday prices cld rise on #Brexitpic.twitter.com/zRqaBjBKv6
PM: "I am a proud easyJet customer" pic.twitter.com/Er5RS5IULM
Some bad news for George Osborne this morning:
Britain missed its borrowing target last year by nearly £4bn, new figures show https://t.co/pT9pxkpqf8pic.twitter.com/SIFaKA6PK4
Here are some more details of that EU referendum poll in the Telegraph, which puts the Remain side 13 points ahead:
details of Telegraph/Orb poll suggesting older voters now majority for Remain - would be big surprise if it happens: pic.twitter.com/eMvfyh3ILh
If you are already tired of the EU referendum debate and want to get away from it all with a quiet pint, you might want to think twice before heading to your local Wetherspoon pub.
The company’s chairman is to visit 100 of its in the next four weeks to discuss arguments for leaving the EU. the Press Association reports:
Martin, a leading campaigner for Brexit, will tell customers why he believes the UK would be better off outside the EU.
To tie in with the EU referendum vote, Wetherspoon has printed 280,000 copies of its Wetherspoon News magazine which will feature an EU special, as well as 500,000 copies of an EU magazine, offering the views of leading Remain and Leave campaigners.
The cost of a family holiday could rise by £230 and new limits on duty free could put an end to “booze cruises” to the continent if Britain votes to leave the EU, David Cameron will claim later, Rowena Mason writes.
In its new analysis, the Treasury claimed holiday prices could go up as soon as this summer because the pound is likely to fall by around 12%, making the cost of accommodation, food and drinks higher for those travelling overseas. It predicted that two years after Britain leaving the EU, the average holiday for four people travelling together for eight nights in Europe would cost £230 more.
The government argued that other benefits would be at risk, including the end of roaming charges from 2017, free healthcare within the EU and booze cruises because of potential limits on duty free.
Good morning, This is Haroon Siddique, standing in for Andrew this morning.
Here is a summary of the key developments so far today:
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 55% (+4)
Leave: 42% (-3)
(via ORB, phone)
Specious Bollocks and Severe Specious Bollocks https://t.co/GxoXYc5Efr
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